BIG TEN - WITHOUT KNEE PADS

Posted at 7:18 p.m. ET

We vote by states on November 4th.  The daily trackers give an indication of national trends, but it's the state polls, which, unfortunately, are taken only periodically, that may bring us closer to the truth.

The Big Ten Battleground Poll is out today covering Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.  We stress that this is one poll, that if its methodology is flawed in one state, it's likely to be flawed in all the others, and that it's only a snapshot in time.

But it's fun, so let's see what they found, as reported by The New York Times:

OHIO - 46-45 Obama.  Disappointing for McCain.  This is a must-win for him, and other polls put him slightly ahead.

MICHIGAN - 48-44 Obama.  Another disappointment for the GOP, although Michigan stays competitive.  If McCain can pull out Michigan, he likely wins the election.

PENNSYLVANIA - A tie.  Excellent news for McCain.  If he can win Pennsylvania, it's a huge plus, assuming his other states fall in line, a huge assumption in this week of slumping McCain poll numbers.  But the election is November 4th.

INDIANA - 47-43 McCain.  McCain must win in this traditionally Republican state, and he should be further ahead.  Another Indiana poll, by the way, has Obama leading.

WISCONSIN - 45-44 Obama.  Encouraging for McCain.  Lots of liberals in Wisconsin, and it's always a problem for the GOP.  But McCain needs better weeks than this to pull it out.

IOWA - Tied at 45-45.  I don't believe this one.  Other polls show Obama well ahead.  This is an outlier.

ILLINOIS - Obama blowout.  His home turf.  And dead Dems vote in Chicago.

MINNESOTA - 47-45 Obama.  Not bad.  A traditional Democratic state.  McCain remains competitive, but I wouldn't bet the computer on his winning here.

Well, they call it the Big Ten poll, but they only got to eight.  Given the education provided to today's kids, most wouldn't know the statistical difference.

Just use the above with caution.  Things change day by day.  Unfortunately, this week they seem to be changing in in the wrong direction.  McCain has work to do.

September 18, 2008.